State of the Region Report 2010

State of Region 2010-2011

Even as the economic recovery from the downturn of 2009 gathers momentum across much of Asia-Pacific, there is great uncertainty in the region about the durability of the recovery. The risk of another economic downturn stems less from a renewed bout of financial sector problems than from a failure of international economic cooperation. The forthcoming G20 and APEC Summits provide an opportunity for leaders of major economies to address the current unsustainable pattern of global flows and to step back from the brink of currency and trade wars.

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Content:

i Message from the Co-Chairs of PECC

ii Message from the Coordinator

iii Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Sustaining Global Growth

• Progress Towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth
  • Figure 1: Real GDP Growth, IMF October 2010
• Macroeconomic Exit Strategies
  • Table 1: Unemployment Rates
• Addressing Global Imbalances
  • Figure 2: Current Account Imbalances
  • Figure 3: Asia-Pacific Exchange Rate Movements
  • Table 2: Foreign Exchange Reserves minus gold (US$ billion)
  • Table 3A: Upside Scenario: Employment and Output Gains by region (IMF Mutual Assessment, June 2010)
  • Table 3B: Downside Scenario: Employment and Output Losses
• Financial Regulatory Reforms
• Safeguarding Trade Liberalization and Concluding the Doha Round
• Delivering Action
• APEC
• Conclusion

Chapter 2: Survey of Opinion Leaders

• Priority Issues for Yokohama 
• Optimism on the Wane
  • Chart 1: Expectations for growth of the global economy
  • Chart 2: What are your expectations for economic growth by economy
  • Chart 3: What is the likelihood of another global recession in the next 12 months?
• Risks to Growth
  • Table 1: Risks to Growth
• Balanced and Sustainable Growth and Responses to the Global Economic Crisis
  • Table 2: Policy Objectives for Achieving Sustained Growth in the Asia-Pacific over the next 5 years
  • Chart 4: Rebalancing growth towards greater emphasis on domestic demand in East Asian economies
  • Table 3: Actions to Rebalance Growth in the Asia-Pacific
  • Table 4: Components of Structural Reform
  • Table 5: Challenges to Structural Reform 
• Regional Economic Integration and Cooperation 
  • Table 6: Challenges to doing business in the Asia-Pacific
  • Chart 5: Bogor Goals and New Agenda
  • Chart 6: Regional economic integration should be pursued on multiple tracks
  • Chart 7: Regional and Global Institutions
• Importance of APEC Activities 
  • Table 7: Importance of Various APEC Activities

Chapter 3: A Composite Index of Economic Integration in the Asia-Pacific

• Intra-regional Trade Share, Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 1: Trade Share in AP Region
• Intra-regional FDI Share, Asia-Pacific 
  • Figure 2: Intra-AP FDI Share within AP Region
• Intra-regional Tourist Inflow, Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 3: Share of Intra-AP Tourists Inflow
• Updated Convergence Index: 1990-2007
  • Figure 4: Updated Convergence Index: 1990-2007
• Updated Composite Index: 1990-2007 
  • Figure 5: Updated Composite Index: 1990-2007
  • Table 1: Comparison of 2006 and 2007 Composite Index
• How to Read the PECC Index of Asia-Pacific Economic Integration 
• Technical Note on the Composite Index of Asia-Pacific Economic Integration 

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Associate & Institutional Members